I said to someone yesterday that all the talk of the AI bubble reminds me of social media in its early days. People talked about how it was doomed to fail because it couldn’t make money, and I said that AI is going to end up the same. They will sell advertising. That somewhat deludes the purpose of asking AI where the best restaurant in town is or other practical functions, but it is how money is made.
The other thing AI makes me think of is the FroYo boom of the early 2010’s. I don’t know how many people remember when all of a sudden every strip mall in America had at least one FroYo place. I remember going to Pinkberry and both enjoying my yogurt and thinking it was way too expensive.
Two things then happened. Most FroYo places switched to a self serve model and either had a single employee or worked on the honor system. The winner of all this and the only FroYo place I see around anymore was Sweet Frog.
It has been a long time since I have even seen FroYo. I have no idea what happened. The only thing I can think is that people learned FroYo wasn’t any better for them than ice cream and because ice cream tastes better everyone went back to eating ice cream.
The other factor is a bunch of FroYo investors took advantage of the low rents coming out of the mortgage crisis and when the economy recovered they couldn’t afford their rents anymore or they had made their quick buck and got out of the yogurt business.
It was a strange time and an episode I may never understand. Trends are like that. They bloom quickly and are over just as quick. AI isn’t a trend. There is too much money invested in it for people to let it fail.
It is more like social media than FroYo. It might not be obvious how it will optimize and monetize, but it will. Or someone will get it to. Think of the search engine boom of the late 90’s. There were a bunch of companies all competing for the same space. That is where AI is right now. It is in those early stages. No one even knows what it is yet, and the person or company that wins is going to be the one who recognizes who most benefits from the tool, gears the tool that market, and sells advertising to others looking to be in front of those people.
Here’s the thing about bubbles or boom periods. If you had invested in Alta Vista or Ask in the late 90’s you’d be out some money, but if you’d invested in Google you’d feel pretty good right now. Someone is going to figure out how to optimize and monetize AI, and that company is going to become a household name.
This technology isn’t going anywhere and sooner rather than later it is going to be a part of the fabric of our lives.
David Huzzard Writes 