I woke up this morning to an interesting lecture. A talking down or a telling off might be a more appropriate term. Either way I replied to someone on Reddit (my mistake) that was talking about how an AI bubble was a near certainty because all of these people that did well during the housing bubble said so and that it would be worst than The Great Depression.
I found this to be a strange bit of lunacy so I asked the question I have been asking. If everyone thinks this is a bubble and is acting like it is a bubble can it really be a bubble? Think about the proverbial turkey as Thanksgiving approaches but this turkey knows the reality of Thanksgiving. They may choose to fight or look for escape or change their behavior in any number of ways. The most effective would be a hunger strike. Which doesn’t make the chance for death any less but it is a different sort of death.
I don’t know if that is a good analogy but I am ignorant of the future unlike the people I was conversing with on Reddit. They told me to learn history so that must mean that this is history for them as they have absolute certainty as to what will happen.
That is what confuses me. The absolute certainty around unknown events. I saw the same thing yesterday on the Washington Nationals subreddit. A discussion of CJ Abrams move to second base and the near certainty that the short stop prospects are years away. I am not sure years is the correct timeline for players finishing the year out at AAA and high A. There is a 70% chance that both King and Willits play for the 2027 Nationals at some point if there isn’t a lockout or strike.
We don’t know the future but I do know that prospect timing is something most people get wrong because they hedge too cautious and that is exactly what the AI bubble talk feels like. People want so much protection from being wrong that they hedge too far in the other direction, because if you prepare for great harm and then no harm comes then you remain unharmed, but if you act even modestly in a risky endeavor and some harm comes then you were harmed so the obvious answer is to avoid any risk of harm.
David Huzzard Writes 