Earning reports are making me feel smart while the stock market is making me feel dumb. I am not claiming to be an excellent stock picker, because my unrealized losses clearly show that I am not, but Nike beat, then Comcast, beat, then JP Morgan, Johnson and Johnson, Travelers, Visa, Google, and on and on. I have picked a bunch of winners. Meanwhile the market has reacted to half of them by either throwing them in the garbage, discounting earnings because of future concerns and other human justification nonsense.
I used to say about baseball the only player I’ve ever been wrong about was Henry Rodriguez and I still believe if a good pitching coach had gotten their hands on him, taken a couple miles off his fastball, and converted him to a starting pitcher he would have been great, but it is easier to cast a wild pitch machine reliever to the scrap heap than turn them into a project.
Last night produced two more stock market beats and the market reacted wildly different. To the point that Robinhood is labeling Qualcomm a beat while the pundits have convinced ChatGPT that it missed earnings. So strong is the negativity that the AI doesn’t know what to report but the old fashioned algorithm does.
It is funny that one of my issues with AI is its siting of sources and when dealing with the stock market you are largely dealing with idiots that you have no idea how they will react. One day they’re selling the future because they need to bring the stock price in line with the present, then the present reports better than expected, and they sell it more because the future looks like it will take too long to get here.
I am constantly trying to get the AI to tell me the real answer. The one where it just tells me that it doesn’t make sense, but it is programed to make since of things. So a stock that does nothing but fall into earnings expecting a bad report, gets a good report, and then falls further doesn’t make any sense.
Microsoft was the opposite. It fell into earnings because of AI spending. Everyone was afraid of it. They had a good report and bounced right back because AI spending isn’t impacting the rest of the business. There I go trying to justify the illogical. Rise or fall there will be a reason. All I’m going to say is that everything I picked has beat earnings, and all the people causing my correctness to be punished can go F themselves.
David Huzzard Writes 