We fall into a world of screens. It is confusing and disorienting. We can’t find our way out. Here I am in front of a computer holding a smaller computer up in front of my face reading a stranger’s thoughts on the AI bubble.
As I live my life and go about my days I am less and less convinced that there is a bubble. I have no come to think of what I was feeling earlier in the year, that there are two economies, as that there is a perception of the economy and the reality of it.
In our industry we have seen changing patterns of behavior. People are still spending the same amount of money even if they are either taking smaller vacations are less vacations. The spending hasn’t stopped even if the behavior has.
Likewise people can complain a lot. They can complain a lot about a lot of things. People are very good at complaining. They should win awards for it, and when one of the sacred price anchors like gas goes through the roof then people are going to complain and the move from $2.95 to $3.05 is going to be treated harsher than the move from $2.05 to $2.95. There is power in price anchoring, and $4.00 is even worse.
While all these prices change and move around people are still spending. They might be spending differently but they are still spending. There always exists a reality that is happening and one that is perceived and right now the perception of the economy isn’t matching the reality.
The most interesting part of this is people can look at the same data points and reach two completely different conclusions. I was watching a YouTube video on how the S&P is actually undervalued when compared to its forward earnings and then the video immediately afterward was on how the S&P has never been more overvalued in relation to wages.
It really is quite insane to watch, but I know that every business meeting I go to I see hundreds of local small businesses adapting AI and hear about ways I never thought it could be used, and then I turn on CNBC and they’re talking about how we just don’t know and can’t know if people will ever accept the technology or if it will be profitable.
The real question shouldn’t be if it is or isn’t a bubble. It should be if talking heads, pundits, Reddit bros, and YouTube influencers are all running around crying bubble can there be a bubble? If the boy who cried wolf wasn’t one boy but a village of boys and they all built wolf traps around the village because there are definitely going to be wolves can the wolf show up in the final act? That’s the question we should ask. Is our fear of a bubble creating the opposite.
David Huzzard Writes 