Perception is not reality. People believe it is, say it is, but it isn’t. In the early hours of the election the futures market headed into a steep decline on the realization that the Democrats were going to take both houses of Congress and many Governorships that felt safe. It was the largest Democratic victory in awhile and one that reshapes American politics going forward.
As this election is largely seen as a rebuke of Trump and 2024 was seen as a rebuke of Biden where we go from here is anyone’s guess. I do not think it is healthy for people to vote against something. It is much better to vote for something. Look at the messaging of Obama and Reagan. It was forward looking and optimistic. People voted for them.
This election could be extremely consequential. We could have one or both candidates for 2028 coming out of this election or shaped by it. If Texas eases voting restrictions and looks like it is headed towards becoming a Blue state in 2028 then the Republicans have to hold onto Florida. The path forward for Republicans gets very difficult with California, New York, and Texas all being blue.
What messaging can reach the American people? And are they ready for positivity? Negative sentiment is at an all time low. People’s faith in the future and their place in it has been decreasing over the last decade. It is hard to be optimistic. I tell people that question my optimism that it is a choice I make. I’d rather look on the bright side than the dark side.
Which brings me back to the futures market. It not only recovered but continues to find new legs up as both the S&P and NASDAQ are nearly a percentage point up this morning. Today could be the first multiple percentage point increase since I don’t know when. It feels like at least August.
Some uncertainty has lifted, but even more remains. Iran is an ongoing issue, the economy is recovering, and there is the private debt issue looming on the horizon. How this all shakes out heading into 2028 is going to be interesting to watch, and midterms 2026 could be remembered as a pivot point in American history.
