I can be a tad cynical about things at times, and today I am going to spend it at an all day business meeting while reading about how strong our survivorship bias is. Survivorship bias exists for a good reason. A lot of our flows do. If we were still roaming the plains hunting and gathering then following survivors is a great idea, but in the modern world it can become as much of a hindrances as anything.
It is especially strong in business because there is such a high failure rate and as we get higher and higher into the revenue evaluation it gets more and more pronounced. Meaning less and less survivor and we don’t know if they are surviving because of skill or luck. A lot of it is luck. Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos wouldn’t have Berkshire and Amazon if they were born to different families and had to start working in the factory at 17 to feed their four siblings.
On top of this natural survivorship bias and discounting the luck of birth family we, as Americans, love to sprinkle the prosperity gospel on top of it. The idea that the money itself is proof of great genius. That of course they’re smart, look at all the money they have. Listening to Elon Musk talk for five seconds will dissuade any rational person of this conclusion.
Today we aren’t dealing with people of that level. I do find a lot of value in the education I have gotten out of the experience, but there is a part of me that looks at things like morning huddles, statements of purpose, and core values with a large dose of cynicism. Is this really helpful or is it survivorship bias?
If someone started a business and the believe that you need to hop over the threshold on the way into the building every morning and they make that a company rule. Then that business goes on to be successful and outlast every other similar business in their city, expands throughout the state, and then goes national and the founder writes the best selling book, “Hopping to Success: How a Simple Routine Led to Unmatched Success.” Is that much different than what already happens in the business world?
In other words proof of “making it” isn’t proof of intelligence or skill. It is proof that someone made it to a level we assign value to. The reasons are more obscure, and some parts of the instruction will be skill and others misattributed luck.
David Huzzard Writes 