The internet is an interesting place. In theory there is no bouncer standing at the front door of the internet kicking people out. Some countries might put one their and some people may not be able to get in but in theory the internet is for everyone.
What this means is you never know exactly who you are talking to. Someone could be half way around the world and the leading researcher in a Polish university or they could be a paid troll in a Chinese misinformation factory. You simply never know.
So when we go on a site like Reddit and read post after post on why the US stock market will crash that post could be coming from a person that put real thought and effort into it or from someone attempting to spread a believable lie.
The latest narrative as to why the market has to crash has moved on from recent all time highs with graph manipulation, through the fear of the market’s breadth, and is now focusing on the alleged fact that the companies in the S&P 500 value equals half the world’s GDP. It some ways it is a silly argument. Visa is Visa in nearly every country in the world. Same goes for Coke, McDonalds, Netflix, and more.
American countries have escaped containment and have spread around the world. To the point where Facebook and Google aren’t only the default in the US. That brings me to the idea I had this morning when it comes to the AI buildout.
These cheaper Chinese models that are almost as good are supposed to start taking market share from the US companies at any minute. Malcom Gladwell once wrote about European hockey players and the disproportionate amount that have a January birthday. The reason ultimately given was the cut off date. That the players born in January start out more mature than anyone else. Giving them a distinct advantage.
When we look at the AI models the ones that have been more mature longer are receiving some of that same effect. More attention, more funding, and more early share of the market. Some might argue that Chat has already entered the Band-Aid zone.
So when we look at US companies share of the world economy we have to ask is it because they are the best or because they matured fast enough to get all the attention soon enough to become the default, and does that translate to the future.
